Mixed price movement amid lingering LNG supply fears and forecast of colder weather

Gas prices were relatively unchanged on Friday, with mixed movement observed across the majority of curve contracts.

Prices had initially opened in predominately negative territory, however lingering LNG supply fears and a forecasted drop in temperatures added support that resulted in moves of no more than 0.017p/kWh posted in either direction, when compared to their previous close.

Although Friday delivered no further updates, market participants continued to closely follow the political dispute surrounding the approval of new LNG projects in the USA.

On the weather front, our 14-day demand model shows that demand will outpace seasonal norms in week 7 amid reports of yet another cold spell set to cover the British Isles, potentially driving heating-related demand over the same period.

This morning, prices have opened at a discount when compared to Fridays close, with both the front-month and front-season contracts currently being offered 0.05p/kWh below their previous settlements at time of writing.

If we check the latest half hourly period at the time of writing (09:30 – 10:00), electricity demand is currently 36.97 GW’s in the UK.

Wind turbines are currently contributing over 48% of the UK’s total electricity demand.

Specifically, 48.48% (19.09 GW’s) of the UK’s total electricity is being generated from wind turbines currently with gas only contributing 3.96 GW’s (10.05%).

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