Increase in wind generation help prices continue downwards trajectory

Gas prices continued their downwards trajectory at the NBP on Thursday amid increased wind output and a slump in carbon futures.

Key contracts across the curve lost value with the Winter-24 contract posting some of the largest moves of the session, shedding more than 0.068p/kWh when compared to its previous closing price.

A surge in wind generation like pressured contracts at the front-end. Data from National Grid shows that wind output saw a substantial increase of more than 250% day-on-day, subsequently reducing gas-fired power demand which decreased by circa 27% day-on-day.

Furthermore, a bearish carbon market likely provided pressure to contracts further along the curve.

According to ICE, the EUA benchmark contract lost value for the second consecutive session and settled just below 61€/tonne, its lowest closing price in two years!

This morning natural gas prices have continued their downwards trajectory with the Winter-24 contract last trading around 0.05p/kWh lower than yesterdays settlement.

If we check the latest half hourly period at the time of writing (10:00 – 10:30), electricity demand is currently 38.19 GW’s in the UK.

It’s windy again this morning, with 40.62% (16.07 GW’s) of the UK’s total electricity being generated from wind turbines at the moment, with gas only having to contribute just 8.66 GW’s (21.88%).

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