Winter 2025 prices drop to the lowest levels since April

The NBP closed out September trading with a sharp sell-off with the expiring Winter 25 block closing at its lowest level since April.

Norwegian supply issues significantly interrupted exports to Great Britain on Tuesday, with nominations falling to 32.29mcm, down from 64.4mcm as unplanned maintenance at several assets tightened regional supply. With that said, these disruptions are expected to be short lived and fully resolved by 4th October.

The EU’s storage target of 83% could be met by the end of the week and LNG continues to trend higher year-on-year which likely increased confidence amongst market participants in yesterday’s session.

While contracts further out followed the downward momentum of gas and crude oil prices, Week 42 and Week 43 moved higher, reflecting restricted Norwegian supply for the short-term term (supporting the gas component of power generation) and also highly variable renewable generation expected over the next couple of weeks.

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Price commentary courtesy of Crown Gas and Power