Wholesale prices ease amid forecast of mild winter

An accumulation of factors helped reduce gas prices at the NBP on Tuesday.

Considerable losses of circa 4.3p/therm (0.15p/kWh) were posted across the frontend, coinciding with forecasts of a relatively mild winter ahead.

Great Britain’s National Gas published its October 24 Winter Outlook on Tuesday, indicating that the operator has ‘confidence in the country’s diversity of supply options’ and the ‘capability (of the network) to meet peak demand’.

Forecasts of higher exports to the Republic of Ireland are expected to be offset by lower exports to the rest of the EU and lower gas-fired generation than last year, thanks in part to expanding renewable capacity.

The Netherlands-UK BBL pipeline has now completed its change to forward-flow direction (NL-UK flows), small volumes were tested yesterday ahead of an anticipated increase in EU exports to the UK when compared to last winter.

In other news, Hurricane Milton is currently moving toward the west coast of Florida and is expected to cause widespread destruction when it makes landfall late on Wednesday/early Thursday. The storm system, which has once again been upgraded to Category 5 (156mph+ wind speeds) comes hot on the heels of Hurricane Helene late last month, once again posing serious risks to both civilian and commercial infrastructure in the area.

This morning, gas prices have so far retained yesterday’s losses, with key contracts currently being offered very much in line with their previous settlements at time of writing.

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Price commentary courtesy of Crown Gas and Power