Weaker demand helps stabilise prices amid ongoing geopolitical issues
The NBP curve eased into Friday’s close as weak demand fundamentals overshadowed geopolitical risks.
The latest run of our 14-day model indicates that demand will track below seasonal norms until 11th June, freeing up headroom for storage injections.
Meanwhile, a fresh Iranian ceasefire offer underwent review inside the White House Situation Room on Friday afternoon.
President Trump subsequently announced that he requires extra time for a “final determination,” keeping Middle East peace progress in limbo over the weekend.
On the supply side, scheduled maintenance at Norway’s major Troll field was cancelled over the weekend. This will free up 8.9mcm/d previously expected to be offline from Monday to Thursday, further improving the markets near-term supply and demand outlook.
Baseload power prices also edged lower at the end of last week, mirroring movements on the adjacent gas market.
This downward pressure was also reinforced by comfortable supply margins. Last week saw wind generation fall to an average of 7GW, down from 9.6GW the week prior.
Solar however, saw a 24% increase as clearer skies settled over Northwest Europe. Overall system demand also dipped below 30GW last week due to overall warm and mild weather conditions.
This combination of easing demand and strong solar output successfully mitigated the impact of weaker wind speeds, keeping the broader energy market relatively stable.
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Price commentary courtesy of Crown Gas and Power 