US-Iran ceasefire teeters on the brink of collapse
NBP gas prices eased on Friday, likely influenced by reports suggesting progress toward a potential peace agreement between the US and Iran.
Contracts across the curve lost value amid reports Iran had submitted new proposals to the US aimed at resolving the conflict.
However, developments over the weekend quickly reversed any losses made to prices at the time of writing (10:00am 05/05/2026). In a post on Truth Social, President Trump stated that the US had sunk seven small boats heading toward Iran.
He also declined to confirm whether a ceasefire between the two countries remained in effect, adding to market uncertainty and fuelling renewed volatility.
On the power side, baseload prices broadly mirrored the movement in gas, likely driven by the same geopolitical developments in the Middle East.
Contracts across the curve opened lower on Friday before recovering those losses this morning. However, declining renewable generation may have provided a floor for prices on Friday, perhaps limiting any further downside.
National Grid data shows that solar output fell by around 26.5% day on day, while wind generation dropped by more than 60.5% over the same period; both contributing to firmer fundamentals despite the broader bearish sentiment.
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