Prices rise as market eyes onset of next cold spell later next week

NBP prices rose yesterday as the market eyed the onset of another cold spell later next week.

The Summer 26 front-season contract saw notable gains of circa 2.7p/therm (0.09p/kWh) narrowing the discount between it and the Winter 26 contract, with below average storage now pressuring prices as demand increases.

Demand is expected to hold below seasonal norms until Thursday 22nd, but relief will be short-lived, with levels rising sharply thereafter and staying elevated until at least 29th January as temperatures dip back below freezing in some regions.

Withdrawal rates across the continent have eased slightly in recent days, but storage has been significantly depleted over the past few weeks.

Comparable gains were seen across key baseload contracts as strength on the NBP filtered into the power curve.

As with gas, contracts at the front-end were subjected to the biggest gains amid heightened supply-side risk.

The carbon rally resumed for the eighth consecutive day, with elevated, emission-driven costs, serving only to bolster the co-dependency between gas and power prices.

Yesterday’s generation mix was broadly unchanged with only mild variance in gas and wind utilisation, though gas (CCGT) did remain the largest component in the GB mix.

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Price commentary courtesy of Crown Gas and Power