Prices remain volatile as we wait for todays US mid-term elections

Gas prices fell sharply late on Monday afternoon amid a broader energy market sell-off ahead of the US midterm elections, with Summer 27 posting day-on-day losses of nearly 13.5p/therm (0.46p/kWh).

The vote is widely seen as a possible turning point in the US approach to Iran, with prices liable to swing significantly in either direction afterwards.

Losses were likely cushioned by short term forecasts of unseasonably high demand, alongside persistent unplanned maintenance at Norwegian fields, which kept 27.2mcm offline across Monday’s gas day.

On the storage front, EU storage stood at a combined 74.56% full as of Sunday, around 8.5% below the same point last year.

Germany, which has the largest storage capacity in the EU, was just 61% full, compared with around 75% last year, highlighting the thinner buffer Europe has this winter.

Tracking gas lower on Monday, baseload power posted more modest losses. Wind output strengthened from 21.8% of the stack to 32.5%, while gas-fired generation eased from 42.6% to 34.3%, lifting renewables to 47.8%.

Power found some support from EU carbon allowances climbing above €90/t, which raise gas-fired generation costs, and from the threat of a 24-hour EDF strike in France on Wednesday.

Looking ahead, the Crown Gas and Power model shows wind dropping to around 2.5–3.7 GW over the weekend, with temperatures falling further below seasonal norms into next week.

This morning, both gas and power had initially opened higher, with NBP Summer 27 trading up to 4p/therm (0.14p/kWh) higher, but key contracts in both markets have since eased back towards yesterday’s settlements.

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Price commentary courtesy of Crown Gas and Power