Prices rebound higher to keep prices competitive on the global LNG spot market
NBP prices rebounded on Friday, with the Summer 26 front-season contract bouncing from multi-year lows posted earlier in the week amid a need to keep prices competitive on the global LNG spot market.
EU storage levels, though lower than last year, are holding firm, thanks to slower withdrawals on the year, standing at 69.61% as of 13th December.
Our 14-day model now indicates that demand will average just below seasonal norms until Saturday 20th, before gradually lifting back above average from 21st December and holding at that level for the remainder of the outlook until Sunday 28th.
On the LNG front, 8 vessels are signalling for arrival before 2nd January, with two cargoes, one from the US and one from Peru arriving over the weekend.
A slump in wind generation served as a key source of support for baseload power prices moving into the weekly close.
According to data from Elexon, wind power output fell to just 10GW on Friday, a sharp decline from 18GW recorded for the previous day.
This prompted gas-fired (CCGT) demand to surge from 8.9GW to 14.8GW over the same period, serving as the largest source of generation within the GB power mix.
Bullish NBP gas and elevated carbon prices served as underlying reasons for increases, as did lower levels of British nuclear generation when compared to the same time last year (around 25% lower).
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Price commentary courtesy of Crown Gas and Power 