Prices rebound amid higher gas usage and unplanned pipeline maintenance
The NBP staged a firm rebound on Thursday, following on from a three-day losing streak.
Market participants likely eyed strong withdrawals from European storage facilities, which were drawn down at an average rate of 0.28% per day from Monday to Wednesday, accelerated by unplanned Norwegian maintenance and above-average demand.
Markets also appear to still be digesting the outcome of the US midterm elections, with effects spanning well beyond energy.
The S&P 500, a benchmark of 500 large US companies, has fallen 4.4% in the last 24 hours, highlighting investor concern over tighter AI regulation after many winning Democratic candidates pledged to slow or halt data centre construction.
For energy markets, the immediate effect of this stock market news is more likely to be bearish than bullish, given the energy-intensive nature of large-scale AI data centres.
Rebounding alongside gas on Thursday, baseload power saw the Summer 27 contract settle £3.15/MWh higher at £124.31/MWh, according to ICE data, while December 26 added £5.52/MWh.
The generation mix tightened marginally, with wind easing from 29.7% of the stack to 28.1% and gas-fired generation rising from 40.4% to 42.7%, trimming renewables to 40.8%.
Across the Channel, EDF strike action cut French nuclear output by 2.4 GW as power unions joined nationwide protests.
The Crown Gas and Power model points to a pronounced wind lull over the weekend and colder conditions into mid-November, keeping the near-term GB balance tight.
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Price commentary courtesy of Crown Gas and Power 