Prices maintain recent trend amid unplanned gas outages

NBP gas prices maintained recent trend on Monday, maintaining levels similar to Friday’s close throughout the session.

Risk premium from the conflict in Iran continued to serve as the primary source of support for contracts across the curve, with a social media post from US President Trump threatening to target Iranian energy infrastructure if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed to international shipping.

An unplanned outage at the UK’s Culzean field removed supply at a rate of up to 11.5mcm/d, coinciding with elevated levels of planned maintenance across Norway, particularly a partial outage at the Nyhamna facility, which processes gas before it is exported to the UK’s Easington terminal.

Volatility also continued to ease across baseload power contracts. The week opened with strong performance from renewable generation; wind, solar, biomass, and hydro collectively delivered around 62% of the GB power mix, providing a solid foundation for system balance and helping to temper short-term price fluctuations.

This elevated contribution from clean sources played a key role in offsetting the need for more expensive gas-fired generation during peak periods.

An early upward move in crude prices lost momentum as trading progressed. Initial bullish sentiment, driven mainly by headlines, faded throughout the afternoon.

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Price commentary courtesy of Crown Gas and Power