Prices firm up amid forecast of sub-zero temperatures
Gas prices firmed at the NBP on Friday amid forecasts of sub-zero temperatures and an anticipated spike in system demand.
The Crown Gas and Power 14-day model suggests that demand will average above seasonal norms until at least 18th January.
Temperatures plummeted over the weekend and are expected to dip below freezing frequently across the first week of 2026.
Similar conditions are expected across the rest of Europe, putting extra strain on the region’s storage levels, which are already lower than the same time last year.
Steady LNG and Norwegian supplies served as a price ceiling for the near-curve with shipping data showing that 12 vessels arrived at UK terminals in the last two weeks.
Comparable bullishness observed across the baseload power curve, mirroring moves on natural gas and carbon markets.
According to data from ICE, the Carbon EUA benchmark contract gained 1.1% when compared to New Years Eve’s close, supporting the cost of gas, oil and coal power generation across Europe.
Strong renewable output on Friday likely served to temper upward momentum. Elexon data shows that wind power averaged at 18.5GW, comprising 49.6% of the generation stack, helping to keep gas limited at just 5.3GW (13.5%) though lower wind speeds are expected for the week ahead.
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Price commentary courtesy of Crown Gas and Power 