Prices down slightly amid a largely unchanged geopolitical outlook

NBP gas prices continued to soften on Tuesday- though downside was limited.

The price reduction was not so much not tied to news developments, with contracts instead fluctuating within a narrow range amid stalled US-Iran negotiations.

From a supply and demand perspective; the latest run of the Crown Gas and Power 14-day model suggests that demand will switch to above seasonal norms from 5th May, trending higher until at least 12th May.

This will coincide with an uptick in maintenance across Norwegian assets later this week.

According to data from operator Gassco, Norway’s Aasta Hansteen field saw output reduced at a rate of 5.6mcm/d yesterday due to process problems and, again this morning, the Sleipner and Gullfaks fields are seeing restricted supply due to unplanned maintenance.

Power prices were also largely range-bound on Tuesday, with only limited downside amidst mixed moves across the wider energy complex.

The lack of movement reflected subdued market reaction rather than fresh news, as stalled US-Iran negotiations failed to generate new bullish or bearish signals.

Attention instead remained centred on supply and demand fundamentals, with expectations of tightening gas supply due to rising Norwegian maintenance helping to underpin power markets and cap further weakness despite broadly softer sentiment.

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