NBP Prices jump amid higher demand forecast and low gas storage levels

Gas prices at the NBP rallied on Thursday, with firm intraday momentum driving the Summer-26 front-season contract to its highest level this year and its strongest settlement since 4th November 2025, after gaining circa 4.6p/therm (6.4%) day-on-day.

Forecasts of above-average system demand from 7th February, aligned with relatively low storage levels on the continent fed risk premiums, with the supply and demand balance still tight for the time being.

Bullishness on the US Henry Hub also reinforced LNG import costs, with the Feb-26 contract closing at a more than 30-year high on Thursday as similar storage and demand concerns supported prices along the US East Coast, spurring a tug of war between domestic consumers and European importers.

Baseload power prices also saw material gains, tracking moves on the NBP gas market.

Wind generation saw a substantial recovery day-on-day (7GW to 12.6GW) however this had limited impact on gas-fired power demand over the same period (16.7GW to 16.5GW) amid falling imports from neighbouring countries as well as an overall increase in system demand from 36.9GW to 39.5GW.

Upside potential may have been tamed by weakness on the European carbon market. According to ICE, the December 26 benchmark contract shed 3% of its value when compared to the previous close, easing the cost of fossil fuel generation across the region.

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Price commentary courtesy of Crown Gas and Power