NBP prices ease amid strong supply fundamentals
The NBP resumed its downward trajectory on Tuesday, even as the disruption of cargoes via the Strait of Hormuz approached the 3-month mark.
Stronger supply fundamentals and subdued demand exerted pressure along the front-end of the curve, seemingly outweighing concerns about stalling progress toward a lasting US-Iran peace agreement.
The US carried out strikes across southern Iran late on Monday night, citing that these were in “self-defence”. Iran called the strikes, which targeted missile launch sites and mine laying vessels, a “gross violation” of the ongoing ceasefire.
Overall Norwegian output continues to recover after the latest round of planned maintenance, with sum exit nominations expected to reach 293.1mcm today, up from just 167.2mcm last Wednesday.
Baseload power prices continued to trade in a narrow range on Tuesday, alongside mixed movement across the wider energy complex.
According to data from ICE, the Brent Crude and Carbon EUA benchmark contracts posted gains of 3.6% and 1.7%, respectively.
The NBP Winter 26 front-season contract lost 2% of its value however, and power prices seemed to track natural gas most closely.
Elexon data shows that muted wind output supported gas-fired power demand on Tuesday, further strengthening NBP influence on baseload pricing.
UK regulator Ofgem has announced a 13% increase in the energy price cap, taking the annualised benchmark for a typical dual-fuel household to £1,862 for the July-to-September 2026 quarter.
This upward trajectory is primarily driven by heightened volatility and climbing wholesale gas costs linked to ongoing geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East.
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Price commentary courtesy of Crown Gas and Power 