NBP prices at multi-year highs as Strait of Hormuz remains closed

The NBP curve afirmed on Thursday, with seasonal contracts continuing to trade within a relatively wide range and at multi-year highs.

Airstrikes across the Middle East continue make transit via the Strait of Hormuz impossible for the time being, with proposed plans by the US to escort vessels through the key shipping route not yet materialising.

News of the sinking of a Russian LNG tanker in the Mediterranean did little to reassure global markets about the security of supply.

Forecasts of muted demand moving further into March continue to serve as a price ceiling for the near-curve; according to the latest run of our 14-day model, demand will average slightly below seasonal norms until at least 19th March, easing storage concerns.

The wider energy complex resumed its upward trajectory on Thursday after a brief pause, reinforcing baseload power prices.

Wind generation averaged at a rate of 10.6GW between Monday to Thursday, down from 16.1GW across the same period last week, with higher reliance on fossil fuels perhaps amplifying the bullish effect of gas on the power curve.

Prices have held relatively steady this morning, though they are being offered at a slight premium when compared to yesterdays close.

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Price commentary courtesy of Crown Gas and Power