NBP gas prices soften amid forecast of dip in demand
NBP gas prices softened on Wednesday after revised forecasts indicated a dip in demand later in February.
According to the latest run of our 14-day model, demand is now forecast to slip below seasonal norms from 22nd February until at least Wednesday 25th, though the short-term outlook has been subject to frequent revisions of recently and the market has been quick to react to any minor alterations.
A slight dip in Norwegian flows has been observed this week amid a culmination of outages. The Kårstø plant joined Nyhamna on planned maintenance yesterday, contributing to a 7.5% decrease in NO-GB Langeled flows when compared to the previous gas-day.
Largely unchanged fundamentals on the power market with contracts edging lower, likely in response to NBP weakness.
A sustained sell-off on the carbon market also applied pressure by weighing on the cost of fossil fuel generation.
Data from ICE shows that the Carbon EUA benchmark contract settled at €78.45/tonne on Wednesday, the contract has fallen a total of 15% from multi year highs posted on 15th January marking a prolonged downtrend.
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Price commentary courtesy of Crown Gas and Power 