NBP gas prices retrace amid change to demand forceast

A welcomed reversal at the NBP on Monday as the price for Summer 26 and Winter 26 periods posted losses of 3.3% and 2.7% respectively.

Downward revisions to short-term demand forecasts served as the primary source of pressure at the front-end.

According to the latest run of our 14-day model, demand is now projected to average closely in line with seasonal norms, with earlier forecasts indicating moderately above-average system pressure across the first few days of February.

Strength on the US Henry Hub is a bullish signal for LNG pricing, but for now cargoes are discharging at UK terminals at a steady, consistent rate.

Total January arrivals have already eclipsed the same month in 2025 and in 2024, with more expected to arrive by month end.

Baseload power prices fell for a third consecutive session, eyeing weakness on natural gas and carbon markets. A sharp drop in wind power from 20.4GW on Friday, to 12.7GW.

This meant that gas reclaimed its place as the largest source of generation at 16.4GW (40.6%).

Forecasts of easing gas demand however, boosted availability of the fuel for the power sector, diminishing the bullish potential of this drop in renewable output.

The European carbon benchmark, while still exhibiting heightened volatility, eased off slightly on Monday, falling 1.4% (down 5.5% from 15th Jan high).

Softening carbon pricing can serve as a source of pressure by easing the cost of fossil fuel generation from gas, oil, and also coal, which is still used in continental Europe, thus influencing import costs.

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Price commentary courtesy of Crown Gas and Power