Market held within narrow range amid renewed military intervention by Israel in Gaza

The market held in a narrow range on Wednesday, holding just above long-term lows.

Renewed military intervention in Gaza by Israeli forces starting Tuesday night has put the US brokered ceasefire into question.

While the UK does not source gas supplies directly from the area, geopolitical tensions have long offered underlying support to the NBP and other European hubs.

A below-average demand outlook over the coming days should help to offset a short-term dip in Norwegian supplies and limit storage withdrawals. The latest run of our 14-day model projects demand to average below seasonal norms from Friday 31st, as temperatures rise through the weekend and into week 45.

UK power contracts held close to their natural gas counterparts on Wednesday despite consistently strong renewable output across Great Britain.

According to data from Elexon, wind generation averaged 15.8GW between Monday and Wednesday, marking a substantial increase from the same period last week (9.1GW) and the week prior (2.6GW).

This has helped to significantly supress gas-fired power demand over the same period, likely serving as a price ceiling for both gas and power markets, limiting further upside.

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Price commentary courtesy of Crown Gas and Power