Market continues upward trajectory amid mounting geopolitical tensions

The market continued its upward trajectory on Monday, guided higher by mounting geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

The movement followed reports that Donald Trump threatened military action against Oman if it interfered with or obstructed US efforts to maintain a blockade and open commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.

In a phone interview, Trump stated, “If Oman gets in the way, we’ll bomb the s*** out of them”.

The explicit warning caught global markets off guard, given Oman’s long-standing status as a regional US ally and trusted diplomatic mediator, underscoring the volatile and constantly evolving nature of the conflict.

The market continues to gather strength this morning, with the Winter 26 front-season contract currently being offered circa 1.5p/therm (0.05p/kWh) above its previous settlement, at time of writing.

A weak start to the week for renewable generation contributed to small gains in yesterday’s session, all while increased gas demand further tightened the link between the two markets.

According to data from Elexon, wind output accounted for just 6.8% of the GB power mix. Gas-fired plants (CCGT) were forced to cover off the shortfall, accounting for 43.7% over the same period.

Baseload prices continue to move higher this morning, mirroring gains on gas and crude oil markets.

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Price commentary courtesy of Crown Gas and Power