Marginal decreases amid steady supply forecast and a firmer demand outlook
Marginal decreases were posted at the NBP on Thursday as traders weighed steady supply against a firmer demand outlook.
According to data from offshore operator Gassco, daily exports form Norway have held above 60mcm so far in November amidst a fairly quiet maintenance schedule.
On the LNG front, 5 cargoes are expected to arrive over the next 7 days, though at least 3 diversions to other European terminals have been observed this week due to increased competition on the spot market.
The latest run of our 14-day model maintains that demand is expected to climb above seasonal norms on 17th November amid forecasts of cooler temps and muted wind.
A sharp decline in wind power generation since Monday has offered underlying support to the prompt and near-curve contracts but bearish momentum across the wider energy complex (gas, oil, carbon) continued to weigh on the cost of fossil fuel generation across Europe.
Data from Elexon shows that the proportion of wind in the GB power mix fell from 57.3% (20.6GW) on Monday to just 14.5% (4.6GW) across Thursday.
This in turn, bolstered demand for gas (CCGT) generation which nearly quadrupled its share over the same period from 12.3% (4.5GW) to 44.4% (15.6GW).
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Price commentary courtesy of Crown Gas and Power 