Issues around potential opening of Strait of Hormuz drives up prices
The NBP rebounded significantly on Thursday as bullish momentum drove the Winter 26 front-season contract 6% higher than its previous close.
Initial market optimism surrounding joint Iranian-Oman efforts to establish a secure transit route through the Strait of Hormuz faded following a report from Iran’s Fars news agency.
The agency published what it claimed was an official draft proposal that reportedly bans US and Israeli vessels from entering the strait, while requiring “hostile” nations to pay a 20% cargo-value toll.
Market participants interpreted these conditions as a sign that commercial shipping is unlikely to return to normal anytime soon.
Further pressure was felt as it emerged that unplanned infrastructure outages were experienced at Norway’s Åsgard field and the UK’s Rough storage facility.
Bullishness across the wider energy complex served as the primary reason for increases to baseload power prices on Thursday.
According to data from ICE, the NBP Natural Gas, Brent Crude and Carbon EUA benchmark contracts rose by 6%, 3.8% and 1%, respectively, amid mounting market uncertainty about long term Middle East supply dynamics.
It’s been a much better week for renewable power, which has served as a price ceiling, limiting upside potential particularly for prompt and near-dated contracts.
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Price commentary courtesy of Crown Gas and Power 