Increased gas imports from Norway helps ease wholesales prices

NBP gas prices eased on Thursday as Norwegian supply risks receded.

According to data from offshore operator Gassco, GB import nominations from the NCS (Norwegian Continental Shelf) rose from a yearly low on Wednesday of just 15.99mcm to 20.5mcm on Thursday, with a further increase to 30.8mcm expected today.

Unseasonably low system demand has likely shielded the UK market from further increases over the past few days and may have served as a secondary source of help yesterday. The latest run of our 14-day model indicates that demand will average just below seasonal norms until at least the 5th June.

With that said, the UK’s role as a net exporter to European neighbours over the past few days has meant that storage injections have been minimal.

The latest NESO generation forecast shows that wind is expected to pick up over the bank holiday weekend, holding higher than we have seen in recent weeks up until at least Tuesday 27th, suppressing demand for gasfired power generation.

Solar on the other hand, is forecast to decrease slightly as a prolonged period of mild temperatures and sunny weather across Great Britain gives way to slightly cooler, cloudier conditions in Week 22.

In other news, the Ofgem price cap for domestic consumers will fall from £1,849 to £1,720, effective 1st July. This represents a 7% decrease and a saving of £129 on a typical UK households’ yearly gas and electricity bills.

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Price commentary courtesy of Crown Gas and Power