Impending sanctions on Russia leaves market participants on edge
Gas prices continued to trade sideways at the NBP on Monday, this time opting to swing higher as European gas hubs braced for the looming 8th August U.S. ultimatum demanding a ceasefire in Ukraine, with markets jittery over potential sanctions on Russian energy exports
President Trumps administration has threatened Russia with targeted sanctions if it does not agree a ceasefire with Ukraine by 8th August.
Russia has so far shrugged off the ultimatum, leaving market participants on edge.
According to the European Commission, Russia accounted for around 19% of the EU’s gas imports as of May 2025, so any change to the global supply dynamic as a result of U.S. sanctions could have negative, unpredictable consequences for the bloc and the wider region.
Robust supply fundamentals heading into week 32 may have served as a price ceiling, especially for the prompt and near-curve.
Norway’s Hammerfest-Melkøya LNG plant returned after more than 3 months of planned maintenance and several days of delays, restoring 18.4mcm/d of export capacity and helping to support storage injections.
Baseload power also saw modest gains despite a surge in wind generation amidst the landfall of Storm Floris.
Data from Elexon shows that wind output rose to a massive 14.7GW across Monday, up from 8.1GW the day prior and accounting for 45.2% of the GB power mix.
Gas (CCGT) and biomass contributed 15.2% and 3.5%, respectively. Localised power outages were reported as a result of the storm, with wind gusts in excess of 100mph recorded, worst hit were the Scottish Highlands, parts of Northern England, Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland.
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Price commentary courtesy of Crown Gas and Power 