Hope of a pause in the US-Iran conflict helps reduce prices at the NBP
A sharp reversal was observed for NBP gas prices on Monday after hopes of a pause in the US–Iran conflict paved the way to a rapid unwinding of the near-curve.
The Winter 26 front-season contract posted losses of 7.7% when compared to Friday’s close, reflecting a weakening of the wider energy complex. According to data from ICE, the Brent Crude and Carbon EUA benchmark contracts fell by 8.7% and 1.3%, respectively, on the back of cooling US rhetoric surrounding the conflict.
The pullback follows a multi-day pause in airstrikes between Washington and Tehran as Oman-mediated talks attempt to resolve maritime shipping security in the Strait of Hormuz, though both sides maintain that their forces remain on high alert.
Generation fundamentals appeared remarkably steady heading into Monday’s session, with cross-border imports continuing to act as the single largest supply contributor to the national grid.
Power flows from France remained robust despite extreme high temperatures sweeping across the country and neighbouring Spain, where intense heatwaves have ignited severe, out-of-control wildfires.
At the same time, a bearish wider energy complex, driven by reports of cooling geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, exerted significant downward pressure on baseload electricity prices by directly reducing the underlying cost of fossil fuel generation.
If you want to see more information on the wholesale market trends subscribe to our weekly report here.
Price commentary courtesy of Crown Gas and Power 