Good levels of renewable generation helps stabalise prices

The NBP held firm on Thursday, supported by stable supply fundamentals and stalling Middle East peace progress.

While UK and Norwegian (beach) flows have increased gradually this week, the increased volumes have been largely directed to the Netherlands via the BBL (Bacton-Balgzand) pipeline, signalling that shippers are prioritising filling underground facilities in mainland Europe.

This regional focus comes as European inventories remain heavily depleted compared to last year.

Great Britain currently holds 2.9 TWh (down from 10.2 TWh), while overall EU storage stands at 467 TWh, a sharp drop from 562 TWh recorded on the same date last year.

The latest run of the Crown Gas and Power 14-day forecast model suggests that demand will rise above seasonal norms over the weekend, holding at unseasonably high levels until at least Sunday 14th.

A huge increase in wind power has been recorded in the second half of this week, though generalised uncertainty across global energy markets due to the Iran conflict served as a firm source of underlying pressure, subduing attempts by the near-curve to push lower.

According to data from Elexon, wind power served as the largest single source of generation on Thursday, accounting for 49.5% of the power mix.

Overall, renewable sources accounted for 63.9%, weighing heavily on gas-fired (CCGT) demand, which accounted for just 9% of generation over the same period.

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Price commentary courtesy of Crown Gas and Power