Geopolitical uncertainty creates a mixed price outlook

NBP gas prices were pulled in both directions on Tuesday, after strikes in the Qatari capital prompted an upward correction in the afternoon, unravelling a bearish start to the session.

The market ultimately closed at a slight discount by the close. The Winter 25 and Winter 26 season contracts were trading parallel for much of the session rare phenomena as contracts further out typically carry a discount to their nearer counterparts.

This could either be due to high confidence in supplies ahead of the winter months or adversely, uncertainty buoying contracts for delivery next year.

Israeli strikes in Qatar’s capital Doha against Hamas leaders spooked global markets as it appeared that tentative progress was being made towards a Israel-Hamas ceasefire.

Mixed movement posted along the power curve on Tuesday, as steady supply and decent renewable yields continued to pressure the near-curve while strength along the wider energy complex offered support for contracts further out.

A recent uptick on Brent (Oil) and Carbon EUA benchmarks has likely served as an underlying source of support across the continent over the past few sessions as it adds a premium to the use of fossil fuels for power, which are still a major contributor to generation across the continent.

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Price commentary courtesy of Crown Gas and Power