Gas prices react to low LNG send-out

Gas prices were slightly lifted on Wednesday amid lower LNG send-out and a short British gird.

The majority of contracts traded within a narrow range of their previous settlements with the largest movements once again seen at the front-end; the December-23 front-month contract posted gains of circa 0.07p/kWh when compared to its previous close.

A reduction in LNG send-out potentially added support to near-dated contracts. According to data from National Gas, send-out to Britain fell by more than 37% day-on-day which likely contributed to the British gas grid being 9mcm/day undersupplied by 15:00 London time.

Additional increases likely came from forecast of cooler weather. Our latest 14 day forecast model shows demand is anticipated to outpace seasonal norms from the 24th November with unseasonably cold temperatures expected to linger over the coming 2 weeks.

However, an increase to wind-output perhaps helped keep a lid on further price increases.

Wind-generated power increased once again for the third consecutive session by an additional 63% when compared to the previous gas day, subsequently reducing reliance on gas-fired power demand, data from National Gas shows.

This morning gas prices have opened in bullish territory at the NBP with the Summer-24 contract last offered circa 0.05p/kWh when compared to its previous settlement.

If we check the latest half hourly period at the time of writing (10:30 – 11.00), 52.32% (20.14 GW’s) of the UK’s total electricity (36.30 GW’s) is being generated from wind turbines at the moment with gas only having to contribute 4.20 GW’s (10.91%) of the total generation mix.

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