Gas prices head up amid quiet LNG schedule

Day ahead gas prices moved up on Monday amid a quiet LNG schedule and a bullish oil market.

Prompt contracts posted some of the largest moves of the session with the Day-Ahead contract gaining almost 0.38p/kWh when compared to its previous close, potentially influenced by low LNG arrivals.

According to shipping signals, just three laden vessels are expected to berth on British shores by 30th November. Furthermore, the US tanker LNG Alliance was scheduled to unload volumes at the Isle of Grain tomorrow but received new orders to redirect to South America shortly after entering British waters yesterday afternoon.

Additional bullishness may have also come from a strengthening oil market. According to data from ICE, the Brent Crude benchmark contract posted gains of circa $2/barrel day-on-day; the bullish sentiment could be attributed to nervousness surrounding further cuts to oil production as the OPEC+ meeting scheduled to take place 26th November draws closer.

In other news, the European Commission yesterday announced gas storage filling targets that member states will be required to reach in 2024, in order to meet 90% full stocks by the 1st of November. In a statement, the Commission said this was the minimum threshold needed to ensure gas security for winter.

Natural gas prices have opened in bearish territory at the NBP this morning with the Summer-24 contract last trading circa 0.07p/therm below its previous close.

If we check the latest half hourly period at the time of writing (10:30 – 11.00), 50.19% (20.78 GW’s) of the UK’s total electricity (41.40 GW’s) is being generated from gas at the moment with wind turbines contributing 9.90 GW’s (22.94%) of the total generation mix.

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