Gas prices continue upwards trajectory

Gas prices continued their upward trajectory on Tuesday, driven by poor wind output and lingering capacity restrictions in the UK and Norway.

The biggest moves were once again observed at the front-end, with the both the July and August 2024 contracts lifting by circa 1.5p/therm (0.05p/kWh) when compared to their previous close.

Faltering wind output likely played into the bullish sentiment; according to data from National Grid wind power generation fell to just 2.4GW on Tuesday, accounting for only 8.1% of the generation stack. This meant that CCGT (Combined Cycle Gas Turbine) facilities were left to pick up the slack, averaging 33.4% of the power mix across the same period.

At the same time, offline production and export capacity in the UK and Norway may have applied further strain to the British system. Data from Norway’s Gassco showed that continued unplanned maintenance at the Visund and Dvalin fields removed 20.4mcm across the gas-day.

This coincided with a long-term outage at the UK’s Barrow (North) gas processing terminal that has been removing 6mcm/d of supply since 4th May and is not expected to be resolved by 30th June (data from GB REMIT).

This morning, natural gas prices continue to advance, with the Winter 24 front-season contract last trading circa 1p/therm (0.03p/kWh) above its previous settlement, at time of writing.

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