Conflict in Middle East affects long term price position

NBP gas prices held on to the previous sessions gains as fundamentals remained largely unchanged from the previous day.

The ongoing Middle East conflict continued to drive bullishness across the wider energy complex. Data from ICE shows that the Brent Crude benchmark closed at $80.93/barrel on Monday, its highest settlement since July 18th, as the current Israel-Hamas conflict entered its second year.

The US National Hurricane Centre upgraded Hurricane Milton to a Category 5 storm on Monday ahead of its expected landfall in Florida on Thursday. Although there are no LNG export terminals in Florida, the Elba Island LNG facility (on the Georgia-Florida border) lies within the potential path, which could cause temporary disruption to exports.

In other news, the BBL Interconnector has now switched to its forward flow (Netherlands-UK) direction as the pipeline readies itself for potential pipeline exports from the EU (especially at times of peak demand). This is a rare occurrence in today’s market, which is testament to the unseasonably high demand of late and this winter’s outlook.

This morning, gas prices have opened at a slight discount, with the Summer 25 front-season contract currently being offered circa 1.5p/therm (0.05p/kWh) when compared to its previous settlement, at time of writing.

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Price commentary courtesy of Crown Gas and Power