Mixed movement at the NBP as increased demand pressures gas storage levels

NBP gas prices strengthened sharply on Thursday, as the December 26 front-month and Summer 27 front-season contracts gained 6.8% and 5.8% respectively, while bullish sentiment also extended to the far-curve.

Unplanned outages at Norway’s Troll and Visund fields in the North Sea continue to cut production due to process problems, tightening near-term supply.

Both outages, which are removing a combined 24.5mcm/d, are marked as having an uncertain duration.

Below-average temperatures continue to draw heavily on continental storage, with Gas Infrastructure Europe data showing that 0.35% was withdrawn on Wednesday alone.

This widened the deficit to last year to around 11%, leaving stocks almost 22% below 2024 levels ahead of the peak winter demand period.

Power tracked gas sharply higher on Thursday, with December 26 jumping £14.64/MWh (8%) to £196.84/MWh and Summer 27 rising £6.34/MWh (5.1%) to circa £130.1/MWh, according to ICE data, though gains were more muted than gas further along the curve.

The rally came despite a far stronger day for wind, which surged from 16.3% of the stack to 42.1%, cutting gas-fired generation from 53.3% to 25.4% and lifting renewables above half of the mix.

The market remains focused on the winter outlook, with the Crown Gas and Power model now pointing to a second, colder spell next week alongside weaker wind, before temperatures move back towards normal from 22nd November.

If you want to see more information on the wholesale market trends subscribe to our weekly report here.

Price commentary courtesy of Crown Gas and Power