A mixed day at the NBP amid the usual geopolitical uncertainty mixed with low gas storage levels
An early afternoon dip was largely reversed as NBP prices lifted into the close on Tuesday, with the Summer 27 front-season contract closing just 0.28p/therm (0.01p/kWh) below its previous settlement.
The remaining winter months (Dec 26 to Mar 27) moved firmly in the other direction, posting gains averaging circa 6p/therm (0.20p/kWh).
This highlights heightened focus and volatility at the front end of the curve, with the winter supply and demand outlook and renewed peace negotiations in two major conflicts feeding into the risk element of pricing.
On the storage front, EU stocks have been depleting quickly amid below-average temperatures and a recent lull in wind output.
Between 26th October and 9th November, withdrawals drew stocks down nearly 10 times faster than over that same window last year, widening the deficit from 7.9% to 10.5%.
Power mirrored gas’s split curve on Tuesday, with Summer 27 easing £0.40/MWh to circa £119.8/MWh while December 26 jumped £6.57/MWh to £174.05/MWh, according to ICE data.
Wind recovered modestly from Monday’s exceptional lows, rising from 3.8% to 11.0% of the stack, and above 16% by late evening, as gas-fired generation eased from 64.2% to 59.8%.
Such tight days are becoming more frequent, with NESO having issued seven Electricity Margin Notices so far this year, against just one throughout 2025.
The Crown Gas and Power 14-day model sees wind dipping again later this week as the cold snap peaks, before a firmer recovery and near-normal temperatures from early next week.
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Price commentary courtesy of Crown Gas and Power 