Prices rise further amid uncertain winter supply and demand outlook

The bulls retained firm control of the pricing direction on Friday, with curve contracts rising for a third consecutive session.

The front-season’s push higher retested levels not seen since January 2023, with the uncertain winter supply and demand outlook serving as a significant source for the increases.

The pace of storage injections into European facilities has slowed sharply over recent sessions as seasonally cold temperatures take hold.

At 74.62% full as of Saturday, Europe enters the winter months with the lowest storage levels in recent years.

At the same time, LNG deliveries into British terminals are expected to total just 4 cargoes in October, down from 11 in the same month last year, highlighting regional tightness and continued Hormuz disruption.

Following gas higher, baseload power extended its gains on Friday despite the generation mix loosening further.

Wind output strengthened from 40.0% of the stack to 50.1%, while gas-fired generation fell from 20.3% to 14.3%, lifting renewables to 65.1%. Nuclear availability offered little relief.

An unplanned 115 MW reduction at Heysham 2’s Reactor 7 is expected to last over two months, while French unavailability for the rest of October was revised up to an average of 20.7 GW, around 6 GW worse than a year earlier.

That limits interconnector support for evening peaks, with imports still covering 16.5% of supply.

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Price commentary courtesy of Crown Gas and Power