Prices rise for fifteenth consecutive day driven by continued global conflicts

Gas prices extended their remarkable rally on Monday, with the Summer 27 front-season contract rising for a fifteenth consecutive session amid supply concerns over the peak-demand winter months and broader uncertainty about long-term market dynamics driven by global conflicts.

Middle East and Eastern European tensions outweighed signs of stable Persian Gulf exports, as Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia and tit-for-tat Russia–Ukraine attacks on energy infrastructure kept supply risks in focus.

Norwegian supply remains a key anchor for the British market, relatively steady imports since the beginning of October are serving as a price ceiling at the front end, which has allowed the front-winter months to rise at a slightly slower pace than Summer 27.

Planned maintenance is low for the next few months and Norwegian pipeline flows have been meeting more than 40% most days this month

Extending the rally, baseload power pushed higher alongside gas on Monday, with both markets testing multi-year highs.

Wind output was little changed, edging from 33.6% of the stack to 32.3%, while gas-fired generation rose from 25.4% to 32.6% to narrowly overtake wind as the single largest source.

Support came from a tightening supply backdrop, with shipping incidents around the Strait of Hormuz reaching record levels and EDF delaying the restart of 2.6 GW of French nuclear capacity.

Forecasts of colder conditions added further support. Relief may come later this week, however, with a strong low-pressure system set to lift wind well above seasonal norms from Thursday.

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Price commentary courtesy of Crown Gas and Power