NBP prices retreat slightly but geopolitical issues and low gas storage levels persist

The NBP continued to retreat on Wednesday, breaking below the 200p/therm psychological support level to close at circa 195.8p/therm (6.7p/kWh).

The pull-back appears to be more of a technical correction driven by profit-taking rather than any fundamental shift in supply, demand, or geopolitical fundamentals.

Taking a look at storage, EU stocks stood at 68.66% as of Tuesday. This was 12.2% below the same date last year (80.83%) and a significant 24.7% lower than in 2024 (93.36%).

With the winter supply season looming and global energy supply subject to frequent disruption from several conflicts, the storage outlook remains uncertain for now.

This morning, the NBP is trading very much in line with its previous settlement at time of writing, with an unplanned outage at Norway’s major Troll field seemingly having minimal effect on sentiment.

Baseload power prices continued to ease during Wednesday’s session, though their downward momentum trailed notably behind the sharper declines seen across equivalent NBP natural gas contracts.

Concurrently, the overall contribution of renewable energy sources to the GB power stack contracted from 66.7% on the previous day down to 56.2%, forcing the system to rely more heavily on conventional gas-fired power generation and cross-border electricity imports to bridge the supply deficit.

Despite this shift in the generation mix, the broader British power grid maintains a fundamentally well-balanced state, allowing market participants to keep their primary focus fixed on the volatile gas market and its heightened sensitivity to ongoing international supply and geopolitical developments.

If you want to see more information on the wholesale market trends subscribe to our weekly report here.

Price commentary courtesy of Crown Gas and Power