Market softens at the end of the week but jumps higher again this morning

The NBP rally extended into a fifth session on Thursday, with the front-season successfully breaking through (and holding above) the major psychological level of 200p/therm.

Natural gas prices softened on Friday but have jumped back up this morning.

On Friday the Winter 26 contract retreated to the 200p/therm psychological level after struggling to find additional support, with the front-season shedding circa 6p/therm (0.2p/kWh) when compared to its previous settlement.

Market participants were likely weighing positive shortterm demand signals against winter-focused supply concerns, spurred on by relatively low storage levels and multiple regional conflicts.

According to the latest run of our 14-day model, system demand is expected to average below seasonal norms from today until 27th September, with mild and windy conditions helping to ease strain on the National Transmission System.

The bearish sentiment on the gas market managed to filter into the baseload power curve on Friday, with proportionally similar reductions at the end of the week.

Taking a look at generation fundamentals, last week saw a slight decrease in winds share of the power mix, falling to 35.9% from 39.3% the week prior.

Despite the decrease, wind continued to serve as the single largest source of power and overall, renewables made up the majority of generation at 58.4%.

This morning, both power and natural gas markets are seeing a firm upward correction. The NBP Winter 26 front-season contract is currently being offered at circa 211p/therm (7.2p/kWh), and it
has widened its premium to the Summer 27 contract to more than 73p/therm.

If you want to see more information on the wholesale market trends subscribe to our weekly report here.

Price commentary courtesy of Crown Gas and Power