Geopolitical risks continue to force prices up

The NBP rally extended into a fifth session on Thursday, with the front-season successfully breaking through (and holding above) the major psychological level of 200p/therm.

The Winter 26 contract settled at 205.97p/therm (7.0p/kWh), registering gains of just under 8p/therm (0.27p/kWh) relative to its previous close.

Geopolitical risks continued to serve as the primary source of market support.

In focus yesterday was news that the Iran-backed Houthi group had seized control of the strategic port of Mokha in south-west Yemen, putting them within direct reach of the vital Bab-el-Mandeb strait.

Houthi attacks have already severely disrupted shipping passing through the Red Sea, but this latest territorial expansion will make it easier for the group to target commercial vessels by drastically reducing required launch ranges and shortening defensive warning times.

Baseload power continued on a similar trajectory to natural gas in yesterday’s session, climbing higher on supply risks from multi-regional conflicts.

Generation fundamentals were unchanged however, with strong renewable output serving as a price ceiling for the prompt and near-curve.

According to data from Elexon, renewable power made up 58.7% of the generation mix yesterday.

Adjacent markets continued to serve as a robust source of support, the benchmark contract for Brent Crude, one of the most traded commodities in the world, had soared 11.8% between Monday and Thursday, emphasising the volatile nature of recent trading across energy markets.

If you want to see more information on the wholesale market trends subscribe to our weekly report here.

Price commentary courtesy of Crown Gas and Power