NBP prices cool off slightly but geopolitical fundamentals remain largely unchanged

NBP prices cooled off on Thursday in what was likely more of a technical/profit-taking move, with demand and geopolitical fundamentals largely unchanged from the day prior.

Elevated levels of planned maintenance in Europe’s largest supplier, Norway, are tightening regional supplies and countering much of the benefit of the unseasonably low demand we are currently seeing in short-term forecasts.

According to data from offshore operator Gassco, flow nominations via the NO-UK Langeled interconnector totalled just 15.4mcm yesterday, down from 62.4mcm on the same day last week.

Overall Norwegian exports to the rest of Europe have fallen by 16.5% over the same period amidst major works at the Kollsnes and Nyhamna gas processing facilities, as well as the Ormen Lange
and Sleipner fields, hampering efforts to reinforce continental storage stocks ahead of winter.

Softer natural gas prices helped to steer baseload power lower on Thursday, and stronger renewable generation continues to serve as a price ceiling at the front-end of the curve.

Elexon data shows that wind power averaged at a rate of 11.1GW Monday-Thursday, trending higher than last weeks 8.0GW so far, helping to ease gas-fired power demand over the same period.

Nuclear output continues to increase at a slow but steady rate, increasing by circa 37% vs the same time last month with several reactors ramping back up after extended periods of maintenance.

On Thursday, nuclear plants contributed a respectable 15% to the GB power mix.

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Price commentary courtesy of Crown Gas and Power