Prices reach new highs amid persistent concerns around conflict in the Middle East and gas storage levels

The bulls continued to push higher on Wednesday, with Winter 26 prices breaking through strong psychological resistance to close at 182.46p/therm (6.2p/kWh), printing fresh multi-year highs.

Persistent concerns about the US-Iran war and below average regional storage levels are underpinning the bullish sentiment, offering unyielding support at the front-end of the curve especially.

The US and Iran continued to exchange missile and drone fire. US Central Command carried out targeted strikes on Iranian radar, defence and mine-laying infrastructure overnight Tuesday into Wednesday.

Iran responded in a similar manner to the day before, striking US military installations within the borders of gulf allies.

On the storage front, data from GIE suggests EU facilities are around 65.7% full, 12.5% lower than on the same date last year.

Stronger renewable generation is helping to calm intraday volatility for baseload power prices, but soaring risk premiums across the wider energy complex continues to serve as the primary price
driver.

The European benchmark contract for crude oil is currently trading at more than 3-month highs, with reports this week over multiple crude tankers being struck in the Persian Gulf coinciding with a recent upward swing.

The NBP is also trading at the highest levels since January 2023, bringing us back to the levels we were seeing at the tail-end of the energy crisis that was triggered by the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the destruction of the major Nord Stream supply route, though we are still far below the peaks of that period.

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Price commentary courtesy of Crown Gas and Power