Prices jump up amid renewed attacks in the Middle East

The market softened into the weekly close ahead of the bank holiday weekend, with falling demand serving as primary support at the front-end.

Contracts across the curve may have lost strength as positions closed ahead of the long weekend, taking Middle East risks into account.

Indeed, we saw fresh escalation on Monday, with the US launching the first targeted strikes on Iranian military infrastructure in several weeks.

Iran retaliated by firing at US bases in the UAE and Jordan, though both countries confirmed air defence systems intercepted most of the missiles and drones, meaning damage was minimal. The US has warned it will hit Iranian targets “hard” in response.

The NBP has opened significantly higher this morning, with the Winter 26 front-season contract offered circa 10p/therm (0.34p/kWh) above its previous settlement at time of writing.

Renewable generation strengthened across last week, weighing on near-dated baseload power contracts right into the end of the week.

According to data from Elexon, wind power accounted for 29.1% of the GB power mix last week, up from 19.6% the week prior, gas-fired power demand fell sharply from 34.1% to 20.9% as a result.

The breakup of the high-pressure heat dome weather event has helped wind return toward seasonal levels, easing strain on the power and gas grids.

Baseload power prices have opened in bullish mode this morning, guided higher by NBP Natural Gas.

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Price commentary courtesy of Crown Gas and Power