Market jumps up amid conflicting interpretations to the US-Iran negotiations

The bears were unable to steer market movement for a third consecutive day on Thursday, with the Winter 26 front-season contract rebounding 5.6p/therm (0.19p/kWh) in an apparent attempt to breach strong psychological resistance at 170p/therm, though the contract ultimately closed just below this level at 169.3p/therm (5.8p/kWh).

The market remains divided due to conflicting interpretations about the US-Iran war and the resulting supply disruptions which have plagued the global market this year.

This has heightened intra-day volatility so far this week, though the overall trajectory has been upward.

This morning, the market has opened firm once again, with the front-season now being offered circa 1.5p/therm (0.5p/kWh) higher.

The baseload power curve also experienced an upward correction on Thursday, with gains comparable to those on the natural gas market.

Wind power did fall off slightly from 9.8GW on Wednesday to 7.2GW, though it has averaged notably higher week-on-week.

An increase in gas-fired generation and cross-border imports helped to steady the system, though both incurred higher intraday balancing costs.

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Price commentary courtesy of Crown Gas and Power