Prices up for a sixth successive day as geopolitical pressure builds

The bull run reached its sixth day at the NBP on Friday, with Winter 26 climbing to 164p/therm (5.6p/kWh).

The move looked driven mainly by geopolitics rather than physical supply: the US Treasury unveiled its toughest sanctions regime yet on Iran, targeting oil smuggling, swap lines, and front companies, while the UAE suspended financial dealings with Tehran, tightening crude and feeding through into gas.

Iran and Oman continued Hormuz talks, though Tehran dismissed Trump’s latest threats.

Weather added a tailwind too, with high pressure bringing drier, settled, above-average warmth into the weekend, implying lighter wind and firmer gas-for-power demand.

Storage is a persistent source of price pressure, with EU levels still trailing behind the same time last year.

Gas market fundamentals stayed firmly in the driver’s seat for power on Friday, with geopolitically driven supply concerns carrying straight through into another day of gains.

Power system dynamics played a smaller supporting role with wind output barely moving from Thursday, up just 1.4% and still around a quarter of generation, but the week’s fluctuating wind pattern has likely kept balancing costs elevated regardless of that flat day-on-day reading.

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Price commentary courtesy of Crown Gas and Power