US-Iran tensions keep prices at a very high level

A relatively flat session at the NBP yesterday, with the Winter 26 front-season contract closing a negligible 0.045p/therm above its previous settlement.

Intraday volatility calmed as market participants seemingly paused to assess market fundamentals moving into the last few weeks of summer.

US-Iran tensions remain very high, especially since the expiry of the 60-day MoU earlier this week, which formally ended the corresponding ceasefire agreement.

The Russia-Ukraine war remains an enduring source of anxiety for European commodity markets, with escalation this week including large-scale drone and missile exchanges between Moscow and Kyiv.

With peace talks frozen and Russian missile production at record levels, continued strikes on Ukrainian gas infrastructure ahead of winter add a further layer of supply-side risk.

A similarly flat session yesterday, with baseload power tracking the NBP closely as fundamentals took precedence over directional price action.

Beneath that calm, the generation mix moved considerably: wind output fell to just 16% of the stack, down from around 28% the previous day, while solar picked up some of the slack, peaking above 10GW in the early afternoon versus 7.4GW the day before.

CCGT stepped in to fill the remaining gap, running close to 44% of the mix and peaking alongside the evening demand spike.

Demand itself eased and Great Britain became a net exporter, sending power out across the day despite weaker wind.

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Price commentary courtesy of Crown Gas and Power