Prices surge as LNG tankers destined for Europe are forced to re-route
NBP curve contracts surged on Monday as a sustained rally pushed the front-season toward strong psychological resistance at 150p/therm.
The Winter 26 contract gained 12.5p day-on-day to settle at 149.2p/therm (5.1p/kWh) – just south of last month’s multi-year peak of 153.5p/therm.
Gains were driven by escalating geopolitical risks, as Houthi vessel strikes in the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb, alongside tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, forced more LNG tankers to reroute.
The resulting risk of delayed European deliveries compounded existing market tightness, where high continental temperatures have already spurred cooling demand and restricted storage injections.
Russia and Ukraine continue to trade unrelenting, widespread aerial strikes on critical infrastructure, highlighting physical risks closer to home.
A bullish wider energy complex served as the prime source of support for baseload power prices on Monday, with muted renewables and firm continental demand serving as secondary bullish drivers.
According to data from ICE, natural gas and crude oil posted gains of 9.2% and 5% respectively when compared to Friday’s close, directly driving up the cost of thermal power generation.
While both commodities saw strong buying interest, crude oil continues to experience less aggressive volatility swings than natural gas, largely owing to its faster-adapting global supply chains, more flexible maritime transportation, and significantly higher global reserves.
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Price commentary courtesy of Crown Gas and Power 