NBP sees drops amid Trump decision to pause major military strikes

Two consecutive days of drops so far at theNBP this week as participants eye renewed US-Iran peace efforts following President Trump’s decision to pause major military strikes in favour of diplomatic channels.

Meanwhile, Iranian officials confirmed progress in Oman-mediated talks on a safe Strait of Hormuz transit corridor.

Despite these geopolitical tailwinds, market sentiment remains cautious: EU gas storage sits at a seasonal low near 57% capacity, roughly 11% below its 5-year average, as sluggish summer injections heighten winter supply concerns.

Nevertheless, NBP prices have resumed their downward trajectory this morning, with the Winter 26 front-season contract trading circa 3p/therm (0.1p/kWh) below its previous settlement, at time of writing.

Wind power continued to strengthen on Tuesday, mounting enhanced pressure at the front-end of the curve all while cooling geopolitical tensions weighed on contracts further out.

According to data from Elexon, wind output reached 8.8GW on Tuesday, comprising 28.1% of the generation stack and forecasts indicate that even higher levels can be expected in the second half of this week.

This should help to relieve strain on the British gas grid, allowing supply to be rerouted toward storage facilities.

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Price commentary courtesy of Crown Gas and Power