Prices trade within narrow range as US-Iran ceasefire holds

NBP gas prices held firm on Thursday, with curve contracts trading in a relatively narrow range of 105p-110p/therm across much of this week.

Largely steady market drivers and supply fundamentals have been key to maintaining this stability. The US-Iran ceasefire continues to hold despite alleged breaches over the weekend, and Hormuz vessel traffic is gradually recovering despite the Strait being declared closed by Iran.

This mix of bullish and bearish pressures has kept prices rangebound, discouraging attempts to break out of key psychological support and resistance levels.

This morning, we’re seeing more of the same, with the Winter 26 front-season contract currently being offered at circa 109p/therm (3.7p/kWh), and reflecting little movement from yesterday’s close, at time of writing.

A rapid reshuffling of the British power mix was observed on Thursday, with a strong rebound in wind deeply depressing gas-fired generation after persistently calm conditions over the past couple of weeks.

According to data form Elexon, wind output reached its highest level since 19th May, averaging at a rate of 15.7GW, a massive 46.8% of the generation mix.

Gas-for-power demand was subsequently slashed by almost two thirds, redirecting much of this freed-up volume toward gas storage facilities.

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Price commentary courtesy of Crown Gas and Power