NBP Prices continue to push upwards amid concerns over gas storage levels

A sustained upward correction was observed at the NBP on Monday, with the bulls maintaining firm control of sentiment on both sides of the weekend.

Natural gas and crude oil markets have seemingly decoupled over the past couple of weeks, following the signing of the US-Iran MoU and the gradual recovery of maritime traffic via the Strait of Hormuz.

This is because the global gas supply chain has less flexibility than crude, meaning that it has been slower to recover from the months-long loss of supply from the Persian Gulf.

European storage levels continue to trend at several year lows, around 10% lower than the same time last year and more than 28% lower than in 2024, highlighting the enhanced refilling requirements that lie ahead across the rest of summer.

Power fundamentals were largely unchanged on Monday, with gas (CCGT) generation continuing to dominate the power mix on lower wind and solar output.

French nuclear output has recovered over the weekend and into this week, supporting exports to the British grid to aid with balancing the system.

Several EDF reactors were instructed to reduce output and/or shut down entirely due to weather related risk and elevated river temperatures during the recent ‘heat dome’ weather event that caused temperatures across Western Europe to soar toward (and on occasion exceed) record June highs.

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Price commentary courtesy of Crown Gas and Power