Prices rise amid stalled US-Iran peace talks in Switzerland

The primary source of the increases at the NBP on Friday was the cancellation of US-Iran talks in Switzerland, which had been slated to take place that same day.

The Winter 26 front-season climbed 3.7%, halting the bearish streak that had persisted across most of the week; nevertheless, it still managed to hold onto the bulk of its recent sell-off, closing 9% lower week-on-week.

For market participants, the derailment of talks due to continued military operations in Lebanon signals a prolonged disruption to the reopening of the vital Strait of Hormuz supply route, given Iran’s explicit stance that the closure will remain in place until tangible progress toward a peace deal is achieved.

Baseload power prices found support from Middle East negotiation delays, though upward momentum remained comparatively muted.

Fundamentally, a sharp 37.9% contraction in wind generation squeezed renewable supply, dragging its share of total demand down to 19.6%.

To compensate, gas-fired CCGT generation surged 57.6% to average 8.7 GW, absorbing the renewable shortfall to capture a dominant 34.2% share of the power mix.

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Price commentary courtesy of Crown Gas and Power