Prices edge higher as Strait of Hormuz remains impassable for most vessels
UK gas forward prices edged higher on Thursday, with NBP Winter-26 trading around 117p/therm, up nearly 2% on the day.
The primary driver remains the ongoing US-Iran conflict and continued restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz, choking approximately one-fifth of global LNG supply and tightening European availability.
Compounding this, Norwegian nominations slipped to around 292 mcm/day as Kårstø maintenance reduced output.
Near-term weather also supported prices, with north-west Europe running 3.6°C below seasonal norms, sustaining demand at an unusual level for mid-May. EU storage remaining at just 35.85% adds further upward pressure.
UK power forwards traded firmer on Thursday, tracking the strength in gas, though gains on the forward curve remained contained.
Winter-26 baseload held around £98.99/MWh, with carbon acting as an offsetting headwind after UK and EU allowances declined.
Softer wind generation across the UK lifted residual demand and supported near-term prices. The gas-power price link remains the dominant theme with gas still the marginal fuel, Middle East supply risk continues to feed directly into power.
Longer-dated contracts face a mixed outlook, with warmer summer forecasts potentially weighing on French nuclear and hydro output through the injection season.
If you want to see more information on the wholesale market trends subscribe to our weekly report here.
Price commentary courtesy of Crown Gas and Power 